RICHARD M. NIXON'S: 1999 VICTORY WITHOUT WAR

There are some very interesting quotes to be found in this book. Nixon was more clever than most men. Few politicians have equaled his understanding of realpolitik nor have they had his ability to write so plainly about it. In this book he speaks obliquely about the true strategic situation facing the two super powers in the late 1980's. The books title suggests that Nixon knew in 1988 that the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact was about to fall. Using what we know here at the Area-51 blog we can see the following quotes in a unique light.

"Soviet nuclear blackmail, not nuclear war is the principal danger facing the United States and our allies in the remainder of the twentieth century and into the twenty-first." (Nixon 67)

"Even a perfect shield against ballistic missiles would not make nuclear weapons obsolete. It could not defend against nuclear warheads carried on cruise missiles, which can be launched from any Soviet aircraft, ship, or submarine and which can fly so low that radar cannot detect them. It certainly could not defend against small nuclear devices smuggled into the United States. No one who understands the issue can seriously argue that the United States -- whose borders are so porous that thousands of drug smugglers and millions of illegal immigrants cross them with little risk -- could deploy a perfect defense against the bomb in the foreseeable future." (Nixon 70)

"Aggressors embark on war when they believe they hold a significant military edge. To preserve peace, a defensive power must be strong enough to convince potential aggressors that they cannot prevail by resort to arms." (Nixon 72)

These three quotes when taken together show not only that Nixon knew of the coming fall of the Soviet Union and the reasons for it. But he also saw what the threats to the United States were going to be entering the twenty-first century. The United States had deployed a missile defense system sometime in the 1970's giving the United States in Nixon's words "a significant military edge." This led the United States to take a more aggressive actions against the Soviet Union in its Central Asian underbelly and the Soviets countered by smuggling nuclear weapons into the United States (Mitrokhin) (Lunev).

The United States then employed Muslim proxies (Afghan Arabs) to fight the Soviets in Afghanistan. In the early 1990's, with the fall of the Soviet Union these proxies were then utilized in a war inside Russia in the  region of Chechnya. Nixon also saw that the Russian response would be to smuggle "tactical" nuclear weapons into the United States. The United States took steps to mitigate this danger in the late 1940's when it's intelligence operations took over narcotics smuggling (McCoy). So, Nixon was right about the threat of tactical nuclear weapons and the Russians have struck three times in the Continental United States. WTC-93, OKC-95 and 9-11 were Russian retaliatory nuclear strikes.

17 FEBRUARY 2018

An alternative would be to develop mobile land-based missiles, like the proposed Midgetman. I strongly endorsed this concept when it was endorsed by the Scowcroft Commission. I still favor it, but it now faces two major problems. First, it is unlikely that the American public and Congress will agree to allow nuclear missiles to roam over the wide areas a mobile system needs to be invulnerable. Federal Government Reserves might not be large enough to make the missiles invulnerable, and deploying these weapons on the U.S. railroad and or interstate highway system would prompt great opposition. Second, if the Soviet Union continues to develop its strategic defense capabilities, the United States needs to develop multi-warhead, not single-warhead missiles, even a moderately effective Soviet strategic defense could seriously cut down the effectiveness of an American retaliatory strike. Small, mobile missiles should be a significant part of our deterrent force, but unless the problems are solved they cannot play as big a role as we hoped when the Scowcroft Commission first made its report. 

20 February 2018
In 1987 Matthias Rust landed his small plane in Red Square. This demonstrated the vulnerability of the Russians to a cruise missile attack.

Bibliography:
Andrew, C. and Mitrokhin, V. (2001). The sword and the shield. New York: Basic Books.
Lunev, S. and Winkler, I. (1998). Through the eyes of the enemy. Washington, DC: Regnery Pub.
McCoy, A. (n.d.). The politics of heroin.
Nixon, R. (1988). 1999 Victor without War. New York, NY: Simon & Schuster.
Winchester, James H. "The Miracle Light Beam." Mechanix Illustrated Jan. 1963: 57+.